Recovery at the end of the year

Signs are starting to point to a slow recovery starting in the second to late half of this year (2009). Watch for these signs and formation of trends.

1. topping out of the gold stocks and bullion
2. bottoming process of canadian banks - US banks are still messed up
3. massive stimulation by governments all over, low interest rates - this will take time but are starting to kick in.
4. consumer confidence dampened but not defeated - there is a lot of passive/latent demand waiting
5. Obama
6. lots of cash sitting on the sidelines.

Areas of risk still - real estate - will drop more this year, jobs - lots more losses coming.

over the next 3 months, watch to see whether gold, defensive plays like MCD, L, WMT break the current top, if not and the trend starts to go down, then we know that the new bull market is about to start. If it breaks above the old high, watch out, we could be in for a depression...... I personally don't think it will happen.

So, let's spend ourselves out of one. I personally bought a new car recently to help the economy and going out and cautiously looking for bargains to stock up. I know I sound crazy but it's all about confidence ..... with such low interest rates and govt intervention, all we need is for people to start lending, spending and shopping again.